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Raw signal.

Hot takes, market observations, build logs. No filler. The stuff that didn't fit in a tweet.

ARTICLE
How I open-sourced my Polymarket trading stack
7 repos. FOMO scanner, whale tracker, contrarian AI, copy trader, OSINT listener. Why I shipped the code but kept the filters.
MAR 2026
SUBSTACK
HOT TAKE
Conviction is a liability
Every position I've held longest has lost me the most. Conviction without an exit plan is just stubbornness with a portfolio.
MAR 2026
HOT TAKE
The best trade I ever made was building a bot to replace me
I couldn't trust myself to close winning positions. So I wrote code that does it without asking. Turns out the edge was removing the human.
MAR 2026
ARTICLE
LP farming Polymarket: real numbers after 32 days
$60 positions, automated rebalancing, dual reward stacking. What the yield actually looks like when you run it yourself.
MAR 2026
SUBSTACK
ARTICLE
Building a signal pipeline with Claude and Telegram
OSINT channels, FTS5 search, AI-augmented signal evaluation. How I built a brain that watches markets while I sleep.
FEB 2026
SUBSTACK
ARTICLE
Why I bet against escalation and how it paid
Qatar +68pp, UAE +52pp. The anti-escalation NO thesis on prediction markets. Brier score 0.22 vs market 0.27.
FEB 2026
SUBSTACK
X POST
$100K in 3 days on poker
Whatever I don't touch in crypto turns to gold. Back at the tables after years. Some edges don't decay.
MAR 17, 2026
@arisehype
X POST
Iran is playing crypto holder meta
One sentence connecting geopolitics, trading psychology, and crypto culture. The kind of synthesis that comes from sitting in three domains at once.
2025
@arisehype
HOT TAKE
Poker taught me everything except how to stop
Variance tolerance, bankroll management, reading people. I learned it all at the table. Then I walked into crypto and unlearned it at scale.
2026
HOT TAKE
Execution is the flex. Everything else is cosplay.
Everyone has a thesis. Everyone has a plan. The gap between knowing and doing is where six figures go to die.
2026